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Feb 4, 2026, 07:45

Laure Morimont and Colleagues on Early Prediction of VTE Risk with COCs

RPTH Journal shared a recent article by Laure Morimont et al on LinkedIn:

”Toward Early Prediction of VTE Risk with Combined Oral Contraceptives:

This new study introduces a biomarker-driven, in silico approach to predict venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk associated with combined oral contraceptives (COCs)—years before population-based epidemiology becomes available.

By integrating normalized activated protein C sensitivity ratio (nAPCsr) values from an endogenous thrombin potential–based assay with known epidemiologic VTE risks, the authors developed a highly predictive model (R² ≈ 0.96; Spearman r = 1).

Key insights:
• nAPCsr closely tracks population-level VTE risk across COC formulations
• COCs containing body-identical estrogens (E2, E4) show the lowest APC resistance
• The model accurately estimates VTE risk for newer COCs lacking long-term epidemiologic data
• Offers a path to earlier regulatory and clinical risk stratification

This work highlights how validated global coagulation assays, when paired with modeling, can accelerate safer contraceptive development and improve individualized risk assessment—without waiting a decade for post-marketing data.”

Title: Predicting venous thromboembolism risk from endogenous thrombin potential-based normalized activated protein C sensitivity ratio assay: toward early assessment of combined oral contraceptives

Authors: Laure Morimont, Mitchell D. Creinin, Ulysse Gaspard, Jean-Michel Foidart, Jonathan Douxfils

Read the Full Article on RPTH Journal

Laure Morimont and Colleagues on Early Prediction of VTE Risk with COCs